Posted: 5:01 am EDT July 25, 2010Updated: 8:42 am EDT July 25, 2010
HENDERSON, Nev. -- Senate
Democratic leader Harry Reid's chances for six more years in Washington
may be like tossing dice in a casino, even if he has made headway
against Republican challenger Sharron Angle in a state with the nation's
highest rate of joblessness. The four-term Reid
holds a slight lead over Angle in the latest polling, thanks in part to
her unsteady performance since winning the June primary and to
Democratic ads portraying her as an extremist. Video of Angle scurrying
away from reporters has mixed with television commercials of older
voters upset about her call to phase out Social Security and Medicare.
But an internal memo obtained by The Associated Press says
Reid has a "a serious problem" with voters frustrated with the economy
and "receives a great deal of blame." The July 15 memo is based on
polling research conducted for Patriot Majority, a union-funded group
that is running TV ads against Angle. The race is
wide open, the memo concludes, despite Reid's improved standing and
voters' alarm over some of Angle's positions. "An
even playing field is an improvement for Reid, as earlier surveys
indicated a much more difficult path to re-election," the memo says. The
winner in November will be the candidate "who makes the more persuasive
case that he, or she, is more dependable and can be counted on to
deliver for Nevada in these tough economic times."
When asked about his standing in the race, Reid on Saturday said he
didn't pay attention to fluctuating polls and only cared about the
outcome on election day. "The No. 1 problem we have in Nevada is jobs," he said.
Nevada's unemployment rate of 14.2 percent is the highest
on record in the once-booming Silver State and well above the national
average of 9.5 percent. A record number of home foreclosures also has
rocked the state, as has a decline in tourism - the life blood of
Nevada's economy - during the worst recession since the Great
Depression. Voters fault the party in power for the
stubborn economic downturn. In Nevada, that's President Barack Obama,
who won the state two years ago, and the Democrats who control Congress,
led by Senate Majority Leader Reid. Republican
Woody Stroupe, 72, a Las Vegas retiree, says Reid and Democrats in
Washington are failing to deal with runaway deficits and illegal
immigration. He wants a conservative in the Senate who will support
lower taxes. Reid "is the most powerful man in the Senate. Look at the results," Stroupe said, citing the sour economy.
Reid is struggling to find a convincing message on the
economy, particularly one that will resonate with independents and
moderates who probably will decide the race. "We have a lot of work
ahead of us," he told supporters this month. Reid
has made a massive development on the Las Vegas strip a foundation block
of his re-election drive. One of the senator's early campaign ads
featured an endorsement from MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren, who credits Reid
with using his clout to save the CityCenter project when its financing
nearly collapsed during the recession. Reid "called every CEO of every
bank that I know," Murren says. But Angle has said
she wouldn't have picked up the phone because private projects must
succeed on their own. That reflects her general position that government
should cut regulation and keep its distance from business, and she
say's Reid's actions for CityCenter might have cost other casinos
business. Angle is trying to recover from a rocky,
sometimes embarrassing stretch in which she's attempted to transform her
mom-and-pop primary campaign into a multimillion-dollar general
election operation. She's hired big-name consultants and startled Reid's
campaign by raising more than he did between April and June, $2.6
million to $2.4 million. Reid still holds a commanding financial edge
overall - $9 million to her $1.8 million in cash on hand. Among some of the images in news reports and Democratic ads that Nevadans have seen of Angle in recent weeks:
-Angle saying, "I'm not in the business of creating jobs."
She later explained that private businesses create jobs and government
is responsible for nurturing an environment for companies to grow. -Angle saying she would not have pressured banks to save a major Las Vegas construction project.
-Angle backtracking after referring to a $20 billion
victims' compensation fund for the Gulf oil spill as a "slush fund." On a
Nevada campaign stop this month, Obama ridiculed her, saying "she
favors an approach that's even more extreme than the Republicans we've
got in Washington." "Sharron's first six weeks have
been atrocious. I think she would admit to that," said Danny Tarkanian, a
Republican who sought the GOP Senate nomination. But "we are still a
long way from the election. There is a lot of time." To Las Vegas resident Bob Harrington, 63, a Democrat who owns a direct-mail franchise, Angle is "frightening."
"She's just so extreme. If she was in Afghanistan, she'd
be a leader of the Taliban. She wants to go back to the 14th century,"
says Harrington, who plans to vote for Reid because "he brings home the
bacon." Her decision after winning the nomination to
limit interviews to mostly conservative media outlets - many outside
the state - has opened her to criticism that she fears scrutiny and is
unprepared for Washington. Even some supporters are
anxious for Angle to retool her strategy to make her more visible in
Nevada, where the former Reno legislator remains little known in the
populous Las Vegas region. "We are the ones that
need to hear from her," said Debbie Landis, a prominent tea party
organizer in Nevada. "No amount of adoring fans in New Hampshire will
get her elected." Angle has reshaped her message in
hopes of appealing to a broader audience, though she says her positions
have not changed. She no longer talks about phasing
out Social Security and Medicare; she says they should be
"personalized." She launched a new website that recast or deleted many
of her earlier positions, such as eliminating the federal Education
Department and using Yucca Mountain as a site to reprocess spent nuclear
fuel, a widely unpopular idea in the state. Reid's campaign later posted the website's original language, which set off a brief legal spat.
Palin's backing pays off for pals By: Andy Barr June 9, 2010 01:23 AM EDT
Some of Sarah Palin’s riskiest endorsements scored major victories Tuesday for the former Alaska governor, showing off her power in Republican primaries.
Palin had four primary endorsements in play – Carly Fiorina, Nikki Haley, Terry Branstad and Cecile Bledsoe – and three won or moved on to a runoff.
Palin served different roles for each candidate – sometimes spotlighting conservatives not well known to the national scene while at others validating conservative credentials to an unsure grassroots and even stepping in to deflect nasty attacks.
Perhaps Palin’s most powerful demonstration came in South Carolina, where her endorsement propelled a major swing in the polls for Haley’s primary campaign for governor and sustained the state representative through accusations of two separate affairs.
"Her decision to get - and stay - involved in the race here in South Carolina was a huge boon to our campaign, because it caused a lot of South Carolinians to take a second look at a rising in the polls but once-little known state legislator who was fighting to give them back their government,” Haley spokesman Tim Pearson said of Palin.
Palin was quick to defend Haley from blogger Will Folks, who claimed to have had an “inappropriate physical relationship” with Haley, writing on her Facebook page that Folks was trying to “make things up.” Palin recorded a robocall for Haley in the closing days, urging South Carolinians to ignore the “made-up nonsense.”
For Fiorina, Palin bucked some of her own supporters in choosing the former Hewlett Packard chief executive over tea party favorite Chuck DeVore in the California Senate race.
After announcing her support for Fiorina, the former governor’s Facebook page was overrun by negative comments trashing Palin’s support of the more moderate candidate with strong establishment ties.
But Palin rebuffed her conservative critics by touting Fiorina’s pro-life credentials as well as her 100 percent NRA rating – thus helping build the conservative grassroots narrative the multimillionaire former businesswoman utilized to dispatch both DeVore and former Rep. Tom Campbell.
“Governor Palin’s endorsement was integral to the success of our campaign,” Fiorina spokeswoman Julie Soderlund told POLITICO. “She provides the ‘good housekeeping seal of approval’ for conservative, outsider candidates. After earning her endorsement we saw an immediate spike in support for Carly amongst conservatives, who represent the vast majority of Republican primary voters.”
Palin also surprised some conservatives with her endorsement of Terry Branstad in the Iowa gubernatorial race over Bob Vander Plaats, a top aide to Mike Huckabee’s 2008 operation in the state and a grassroots favorite.
As with Fiorina, Palin was able to successfully reassure many of her troubled fans that Branstad was indeed a strong conservative amidst protests on Facebook.
Palin frequently uses the Susan B. Anthony List as barometer of suitable conservative candidates, and, as with Fiorina, the group’s support of Bledsoe led Palin to the Arkansas House candidate.
Palin labeled Bledsoe one of the “mama grizzlies” the former governor contends are leading a new feminist movement, and the Arkansas state senator turned a distant second place showing a month ago into what looked like a narrow defeat at the hands of Rogers Mayor Steve Womack.
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WASHINGTON (AP) - Once, California Democrats led the way to a year of the women. Now, nearly two decades later, Republicans hope it's their turn.
Meg Whitman won the party's nomination for California governor on Tuesday and Carly Fiorina will carry the GOP banner into the fall campaign for a Senate seat, a pair of wealthy businesswomen and first-time candidates running against veteran politicians in a year of palpable anti-establishment sentiment.
In next-door Nevada, a third woman contender, Sharron Angle, won the right to oppose Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in the fall.
And hundreds of miles to the east, South Carolina state Rep. Nikki Haley outpaced three male rivals in a race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Shy of a majority, she will face Rep. Gresham Barrett in a June 22 runoff in a solidly Republican state.
Democrats, too, got into the theme of the busiest primary night of the year.
Embattled two-term Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln scored a narrow win over her labor-backed rival in Arkansas, and now must pivot to face Rep. John Boozman in the fall.
The primaries, spread across a dozen states from coast to coast, took place against a backdrop of the worst recession in decades, stubbornly high unemployment, dispiriting day-by-day images of the damage caused by an offshore oil rig disaster and poll after poll that reported the voters angry and eager for a change.
Lincoln told voters she understood their discontent with a late campaign ad that said, "I know you're angry at Washington."
Whitman offered her own version of the same sentiment in her first appearance as GOP nominee to replace retiring Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
"Career politicians in Sacramento and Washington, D.C., be warned: You now face your worst nightmare - two businesswomen from the real world who know how to create jobs, balance budgets and get things done," she said. The remarks were aimed at Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer and former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr., seeking a return to the office he left in 1983.
Ironically, Boxer's victory and that of fellow California Sen. Dianne Feinstein in 1992 were standout events in an election year that sent record numbers of women to Congress, many of them Democrats. Scores of women were enraged by the predominantly male Senate's treatment of Anita Hill during the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas; that anger translated into female candidates running for Congress.
Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, spent more than $70 million in her own funds to claim her nomination. Fiorina is a former CEO of Hewlett-Packard.
As bruising as they were, the night's events merely set the stage for the fall campaign, when Republicans hope to challenge Democratic control of Congress and the two parties vie for three dozen statehouses.
Fiorina is "against a woman's right to choose, supports the Arizona immigration law, wants to repeal health care and supports allowing people on the 'no-fly' list to buy guns," said Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, the head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Michael Steele, the Republican national chairman, countered that in victory, Lincoln "has made it clear that she will simply fall in line with President Obama's big-spending, big-government agenda, putting her vastly out of touch with the majority of Arkansans."
Another conservative Democrat, California Rep. Jane Harman, withstood a challenge from a more liberal opponent - in this case, Marcy Winograd, co-founder of the Los Angeles chapter of Progressive Democrats of America.
Two incumbents did not fare as well Tuesday.
Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons of Nevada fell to Brian Sandoval, a former federal judge, after a term marked by a messy public divorce and allegations of infidelity. Rory Reid, the son of the Senate majority leader, won the Democratic nomination.
And Republican Rep. Bob Inglis of South Carolina trailed challenger Trey Gowdy by double digits, though he qualified for a runoff on June 22 in the solidly conservative district. The challenger campaigned as an opponent of the 2008 financial bailout legislation that the incumbent supported.
Gibbons was the first governor tossed from office in a year of living dangerously for incumbents everywhere.
With her win and his run-off, Lincoln and Inglis avoided joining a list of congressional incumbents sent packing by voters in their own party in earlier contests - Sens. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, and Arlen Specter, D-Pa., and Reps. Alan Mollohan, D-W.Va., and Parker Griffith, R-Ala.
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COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) - South Carolina's Nikki Haley entered a runoff for the Republican gubernatorial primary with a substantial edge over her GOP rival, deflecting attacks on her marriage and her ethnicity using an antiestablishment message that resonated with the state's voters.
"We saw us push against the establishment, we saw us push against the power and push against the money and boy did they push back," Haley, a three-term state lawmaker and tea party headliner, said after coming close to winning the four-way race outright.
Hoping to become the state's first female nominee for governor from a major party, Haley captured 49 percent of the vote to U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett's 22 percent. A majority of the vote was needed to avoid the June 22 runoff.
The winner will face state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, a Democrat who won his party's primary over two rivals.
Haley told supporters gathered in the state capital that the label "Republican" isn't good enough and needs to be backed by true conservative action.
"South Carolina was settling for a Republican House, a Republican Senate and a Republican governor, I won't stop until we get a conservative House," she said as supporters cheered.
Within an hour of Haley's speech, the head of the Republican Governors Association proclaimed her the party's nominee in a statement that failed to acknowledge Barrett, a three-term congressman.
"The voters of South Carolina made a clear choice in Nikki Haley, notwithstanding the possibility of a runoff. The outcome is all but certain," said Executive Director Nick Ayers. "Moreover, receiving half of the votes against two other statewide incumbent Republicans and a sitting Congressman speaks volumes of her strength as a candidate and bodes very well for her in the General Election."
The statement was a quick indicator of the pressure Barrett may face to bow out of the contest, but Barrett said Wednesday he is "absolutely" staying in the race.
"That is not even a question in my mind," he added.
Barrett campaign consultant Terry Sullivan said it was the Washington-based group that should back away from the race.
"As much as people from South Carolina appreciate folks from Washington, D.C., telling us how we need to do things down here, we've got a race to run," Sullivan said. "It's a two-week-long runoff."
Haley's achievement comes a year after outgoing, term-limited Republican Gov. Mark Sanford embroiled the state in scandal by admitting to skipping out of the country to rendezvous with his mistress in Argentina.
She was unaffected by unproven claims of affairs leveled by a political blogger and by a lobbyist who worked for a rival campaign.
"The one thing we noticed, we were 'Nikki Who' about six weeks ago. And then all of a sudden it showed we had double-digit lead in the polls, and then we had everything but the kitchen sink thrown at us. And our opponents got together, they threw as much distractions as they could, but we stayed very determined," Haley said Wednesday on ABC's "Good Morning America."
Shortly after those accusations, which she denied, the married mother of two also had to face being called a "raghead" - a derogatory term for people of Middle Eastern or Indian descent - by one opponent's backer. The daughter of Sikh immigrants, she would be the nation's second governor of Indian-American descent.
Haley knocked South Carolina's attorney general and lieutenant governor out of a race for which they'd been preparing for years. It was Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer's backer who used the slur.
Haley blamed an entrenched "Good Old Boy" system for conspiring to derail a campaign that gained steam with a slew of television ads and a spirited endorsement by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. She pivoted off the claims to underscore an antiestablishment message that has so far resonated.
Haley's politics are familiar to the state's conservative voters. She hews to the Libertarian, limited government policies favored by Sanford, though she distanced herself from him. He backed her candidacy and she won the endorsement of his ex-wife, popular former first lady Jenny Sanford.
Chris Dodd (D-Conn) has been in the Senate for five terms, rising through the ranks to become one of the most powerful lawmakers in Congress.
Yet it seems he may have an uphill battle in trying to secure a sixth.
"It is increasingly clear to both independent analysts and Democratic leaders that Dodd is just too badly damaged to have a decent shot at getting re-elected, almost regardless of who wins the Republican nomination," writes Jennifer Duffy, a Senate race analyst at the Cook Political Report, which is now predicting a Dodd loss.
For much of the past year, Dodd, who heads the Senate Banking Committee, was the subject of voter outrage for his role in the payment of bonuses to executives at AIG, the troubled firm that received a massive federal bailout.
Dodd's close connections to leading bankers are coming back to haunt him. One such connection is to former Bear Stearns director Edward Downe Jr., who once shared a condo with Dodd. After Downe's conviction for insider trading, Dodd leaned on President Clinton to pardon Downe at the end of his presidency.
Dodd's reputation also took a hit amid allegations that insurance giant Countrywide gave him "VIP" treatment in refinancing his home.
Poll numbers, Duffy of the Cook Political Report writes, suggest Dodd "is about as unelectable as unindicted incumbents get."
Dodd is getting an assist today from Vice President Joe Biden, who is visiting Connecticut to highlight examples of federal funding in creating local jobs, such as the construction of a new fire station in East Hartford. He is also stopping by a fundraiser for Dodd, though the senator himself stayed behind in Washington for possible votes
GOP sees comeback in 2010 governors' races
By Peter Hamby, CNN political producer
Republican Bob McDonnell celebrates his win as Virginia governor this month. The GOP hopes for a repeat in next year's races.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Republicans say they'll see big gains in governors' races in 2010
GOP says New Jersey and Virginia wins proof of Democratic backlash
GOP cites economy, concern over President Obama's agenda as helping party
Democrats reject the GOP's boasting of a resurgence next year
Washington (CNN) -- In the early days of his campaign for governor in Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell hired longtime GOP pollster Glen Bolger to take the pulse of the state's notoriously independent-minded voters.
Bolger asked voters if they'd rather elect a governor who would work with President Obama to implement his plans for the economy or a candidate who would serve as a check on Democrats in Washington.
Fifty-five percent wanted a governor who planned to stand up to the president, Bolger said he discovered, while 35 percent desired someone who would help the White House.
Bolger said it wasn't what he expected to find.
"I was kind surprised by that result, because I thought people would say that's not really a factor in the governor's race," Bolger said, noting that McDonnell won the race by a similar margin. "But people saw it as almost like Democrats are oversteering too much in one direction, and they wanted correction."
After dismal election cycles in 2006 and 2008, Republicans are hoping that signs of discomfort with Obama's agenda will translate into big gains in governors' mansions around the country next November. They point to off-year wins this month in Virginia and New Jersey as early proof that a backlash against Democratic overreach in Washington is under way.
By the numbers, the landscape for the GOP looks good: Of the 37 governorships at stake in 2010, 21 of them are open seats. Nineteen of the 37 seats on the ballot are held by Democrats, who have been saddled with the burden of a troubled economy.
The public's concern over the economy, Republicans say, is exacerbated by growing anxiety over White House agenda items such as increased spending, the health care overhaul and proposed cap-and-trade legislation, creating a gloomy political outlook for Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls.
"There is really no middle ground on issues like national health care for Democratic governors," Nick Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, said last week at the group's annual meeting near Austin, Texas. "They're going to really have to take a position."
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, chairman of the the GOP governors' group, said the national political climate will have an indisputable impact on governors' races, battles that usually hinge on state and local issues. Speaking at the conference in Texas, he estimated that next year's midterms could be even more favorable to Republicans than the 1994 elections in which the GOP famously swept to power on Capitol Hill and in statehouses nationwide.
Democrats reject the GOP's early boasting about a Republican resurgence.
In a memo distributed to reporters, Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, wrote that Republicans, if elected, will "make a screeching U-turn and lead us back to the same policies that caused our economic collapse."
Still, Daschle and the chairman of the Democratic governors' group -- Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer -- are keen to downplay expectations heading into next year, arguing that history is usually on the side of the party out of power.
It's been a tough cycle for incumbents, and I expect maybe even the next cycle to be tough for incumbents. --Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana
"It's been a tough cycle for incumbents, and I expect maybe even the next cycle to be tough for incumbents," Schweitzer said last week.
Democrats express confidence about winning back a slate of Republican-held governorships in Hawaii, Vermont, California, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Florida, Minnesota, Arizona and Nevada.
Meanwhile, Republicans are likely to pick up seats in Tennessee, Kansas and Oklahoma, and party strategists are gunning to take down Democratic incumbents in Iowa, Massachusetts, Colorado and Ohio. They also have their sights on reclaiming seats term-limited Democratic governors are vacating in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
That landscape, along with the victories in Virginia and New Jersey, had Republicans in an ebullient mood as they gathered for the meeting in Texas.
Barbour -- the most visible face at the conference, which included a host of GOP rising stars such as Govs. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Mitch Daniels of Indiana -- described 2010 as "a target-rich environment."
He revealed the Republican governors' group has more than $25 million in the bank entering the 2010 cycle, $2 million more than it spent in all of 2006. The Democratic group has not announced its cash-on-hand totals but raised nearly $12 million in the first half of this year, the most recent figure available.
But the Mississippi governor, who is one of his party's most eminent political strategists, also offered some advice to Republican gubernatorial candidates: Be cautious about attacking Obama, who remains more popular than his policies.
"The policies are what people don't like, and that's what you ought to be taking about," Barbour said at the conference. "People want the president to succeed. People want our presidents to succeed. We want out country to succeed. It doesn't serve any purpose to be critical of the president personally."
Another point stressed by many of the Republican governors, strategists and lobbyists who attended the three-day event: One year can be an eternity in politics.
Vermont Gov. Jim Douglas, a Republican who is not seeking re-election next year after four terms, said the economic downturn is nearing its end, a development that could swing the pendulum back in the Democrats' favor.
"I think we've found the bottom," Douglas said in Texas. But he urged his fellow Republicans to stand up to greater spending in Washington, which he said would stymie economic recovery by stretching budgets and slowing hiring.
Black Republicans Say 2010 Will Be Their Year
Allen West, a retired Army colonel who is running for the second time against Democratic Rep. Ron Klein in Florida's 22nd congressional district, West, is one of a small but determined group of black Republicans running for seats in the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives in 2010.
By Kelley Beaucar Vlahos
FOXNews.com
Monday, October 12, 2009
Allen West, a retired Army colonel running for Congress in Florida, is shown here in a campaign Web video. (YouTube)
When former President Jimmy Carter said racism was an underlying factor in attacks on President Obama, it's safe to say he had no intention of boosting Allen West's campaign for Congress in Florida's Broward County.
But according to West, a retired Army colonel who is running for the second time against Democratic Rep. Ron Klein in Florida's 22nd congressional district, that is exactly what has happened.
"Since (Democrats) have thrown out the race card, it has made me more appealing," says West, one of a small but determined group of black Republicans running for seats in the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives in 2010.
Eager to overturn the "conventional wisdom" that the GOP is mainly a white bread party that offers few opportunities for minorities, these black Republicans believe they can attract increasingly agitated conservatives, as well as independents, to make 2010 their year.
They also conceded in interviews that the injection of race -- a familiar theme since Obama's election last year -- has given them a certain edge and authority when they speak out against the president's agenda. Because they're black, they say, they can lead the charge against Democratic policies without being called "racist." In fact, they say, their skin color may make them more attractive candidates.
"A lot of people who don't want to be part of Obama's policies are being called racist," West said. "Then they say, 'Hey, this guy, Colonel West -- he's black and I support him.'"
"It's made me more appealing," West told FOXNews.com, "because it shows the contrast of our principles -- how different we are even though we both have permanent tans."
Ryan Frazier, a 31-year-old councilman from Colorado, is running for U.S Senate against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. He, too, thinks his black skin will make it impossible to label him a racist because he opposes the president.
"I don't think they will be able to use that argument against me or engage in those tactics against me -- I certainly don't hate myself," Frazier said.
Michael Williams, the four-term Texas railroad commissioner who plans to run for the U.S Senate seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson next year, says being black will help him, too.
"One of the things it allows me to do, "it allows me to speak very, very frankly about what I believe, and what I feel, and nobody is going to call me a racist. " Williams said.
"They may try and call me a sell-out ... but I've been doing this for 11 years and that certainly doesn't bother me anymore."
Williams wrote a strident response to Carter on his Web site last month, saying that "stigmatizing honest opposition as 'racist' appears to be a way of not answering legitimate questions about policy reform. I, for one, oppose the president's health care plan because it will explode the deficit, allow further government intrusion into the doctor-patient relationship, and continue to insulate healthcare consumers from the true cost of their care."
John Gizzi, political editor for the conservative Human Events magazine, said emerging "top tier" black Republicans like Williams and West "are the worst nightmare for Democrats," because "they will be the ones who can go toe-to-toe with Barack Obama and the media will pay attention.
"The very fact that these candidates, who happen to be African-American, can address the issue (of health care) ... is very, very significant," Gizzi said. "People are going to listen because they will eliminate any racially incendiary issues that have entered into this debate."
Blacks and the GOP: A Mixed Bag
Black Republicans have been trying for years to break onto the scene with notable, but minimal, success, Gizzi said.
There have been four black U.S senators since Reconstruction. The first was Massachusetts Sen. Edward Brooke, a Republican, who served from 1967-1979. The other three were all Illinois Democrats -- Carol Mosely Braun (1993-1999), Obama (2005-2008) and Roland Burris, who replaced Obama last year.
In 1990, Gary Franks of Connecticut was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives -- the first black Republican elected to the House since1932. He served three terms before he was defeated in 1996.
Since Franks, there has been only one black Republican in the House -- J.C. Watts of Oklahoma, who served from 1995 to 2003.
There have been some notable also-rans, most recently former NFL star Lynn Swann, who ran and lost against Democrat Ed Rendell for governor of Pennsylvania in 2006. At the same time, Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell ran and lost a bid for governor in Ohio.
After losing his bid for U.S. Senate in 2006, former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele became the second black official to head a major political party when he was elected Republican National Committee chairman 10 months ago. The other black party chairman was Ron Brown, who headed the Democratic National Committee from 1989 to 1993.
The GOP still calls itself the "Party of Lincoln" because of its historical ties to the abolition of American slavery, and blacks remained loyal to the party after Reconstruction as Southern Democrats established segregationist Jim Crow laws. But the scene began to shift during the Depression, as blacks voted in large numbers for President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his New Deal policies.
The Democrats cemented their lock on black voters in the 1960s when President Lyndon Johnson pushed his Great Society programs and, more importantly, the landmark Civil Rights Act of 1964 through Congress. Four years later, in 1968, Richard Nixon wooed disenchanted Southern Democrats to win the presidency, setting the GOP on its current course, demographically, with voters of color.
"[Blacks] are the most reliable, monolithic voting component in the Democratic Party," Gizzi said.
It means candidates like Williams and West are rare, but it also gives them an appeal: they are running against stereotypes, with conservative ideas they insist should appeal to people of all colors. They believe blind faith in government has hurt the black community, and want to make that case plainly.
"Our time will come," Williams said. "And when it does, the floodgates will open."
Frazier said he believes the current political climate favors a push toward diversification in the GOP.
"I think it's reasonable to say the landscape is unfolding in such a way in which Republicans in general have an opportunity to gain the confidence of the people, and a big part of that is going to require the Republican Party to put forth new voices and different people," Frazier told FOXNews.com. "In order for Republicans ... to grow its ranks, it must reflect America."
"Race has nothing to do with it."
But at least one black Republican says race has everything to do with it, and he complains that the current crop of candidates are running "color blind" – essentially ignoring their roots and writing off the black vote.
"They are a total embarrassment," political consultant Raynard Jackson, a black Republican.
Jackson said there have been incidents in which the rhetoric among some Republican activists has gone too far, and that black Republicans would have been better served to say so. "They seem more intent about being accepted into the party than calling a spade a spade," he told FOXNews.com.
He said black candidates do not put other blacks in positions of authority in their campaigns, nor do they spend time cultivating special relationships within the black community that might earn them fundraising dollars and valuable support down the road.
More importantly, he said, they do not craft their campaign rhetoric or platforms to reach out to black voters, and in their zeal to be "color blind," they likely miss out on some real opportunities to change minds and win votes in a "lost" community.
"They are missing out on a golden opportunity, he said. "Messaging. That's marketing 101. If you don't recognize the color ... you will not be able to formulate a message to reach out to the different demographics."
But the candidates themselves disagree that they should make a central theme of their campaigns. They think their success relies on broad conservative appeal, not color appeal.
"Our folks are saying they want a reliable conservative -- that happens to be what's catching on with me," Williams told FOXNews.com. "It just happens to be an added plus, me being an African-American."
West, who captured 45 percent of the vote in his Florida swing district in 2008, says his positions on the economy and national security are resonating with his constituents. "It has nothing to do with race," he said. "People don't care about your color, they care about your character."
Retired Army Col. Louis Huddleston, who is running for Congress against incumbent Rep. Larry Kissell, D-N.C., is blunt when talking about race. "My bona fides and my credibility ... have nothing to do with my race," he said. "It may be good for copy or for media sensationalism. But my success will not be based on race.
"I don't function from that paradigm," he said. "Race is a benign characteristic. It is who you are and what motivates you that matters."
Frazier said he's not living in a bubble -- "I go anywhere, the NAACP as well as the tea parties." He is also sure that Carter's comments "did nothing to further race relations in this country."
"Does racism exist in this country? Sure. But I think the overwhelming majority of Americans who care about this country do not care about skin color," Frazier said.
"My candidacy is based on solutions and beliefs I hold near and dear. It's not going to be about race, and when I oppose Obama, it is going to be purely because I believe his administration is headed the wrong way."
Nevadans say they're ready to replace longtime Democratic incumbent Sen. Harry Reid with an untested Republican.
Which Republican? Undecided.
But of their top two picks -- former GOP party official Sue Lowden and real estate developer Danny Tarkanian -- either one would unseat Reid if the election were held today, according to a poll commissioned by the Review-Journal.
Lowden and Tarkanian are in a statistical tie atop a list of nine primary candidates, according to the survey of Nevada registered voters.
The poll by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. shows 23 percent of Republicans favored Lowden to 21 percent for Tarkanian with 44 percent undecided.
"That's a lot of voters sitting on the fence," said Brad Coker, Mason-Dixon managing partner.
Former assemblywoman Sharron Angle came in third among primary candidates at 9 percent; six others had 1 percent or less.
Though respondents can't decide whom they want to win the Republican primary, they're certain they don't support Reid, the Senate majority leader seeking his fifth consecutive six-year term.
In one general election scenario, 49 percent of respondents picked Lowden and 39 percent chose Reid. In another, 48 percent picked Tarkanian to 43 percent for Reid. That poll, which surveyed 500 voters Tuesday through Thursday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
In Clark County, where Reid needs to dominate to win another term, he is in a statistical tie with either Lowden or Tarkanian.
"That is the bad news," UNLV political science professor David Damore said of Reid's Clark County numbers. "That tells you there is a disaffected base there."
For months the perception of Reid among voters has been fixed, with near 100 percent name recognition and a high number of voters viewing him unfavorably. In the latest poll, 38 percent of voters viewed Reid favorably compared to 50 percent with an unfavorable view.
That's virtually unchanged from a similar poll in August.
In contrast, 31 percent had a favorable view of Lowden and 15 percent unfavorable; 25 percent didn't recognize her.
For Tarkanian, 30 percent of respondents had a favorable view and 11 percent unfavorable; 19 percent didn't recognize him.
"Reid needs to be a little bit less worried about his opposition right now and work to shore himself up," said Jennifer Duffy with the Cook Political Report.
Party affiliation breakdown in the poll was reflective of state registration figures, with 44 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans and 20 percent independents. Questions about the Republican primary were limited to a sampling of 300 Republicans. Those results have a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.
Representatives of the candidates took the poll results with a grain of salt.
"Senator Reid has never put much stock in polls. The Republican candidates in this race are still supporting many of the policies that got us into the mess that Senator Reid is working every day to get us out of," said Reid campaign manager Brandon Hall. "As the election draws closer and voters are presented with a choice between moving our economy forward and the status quo, we are confident that Senator Reid's vision of moving forward will prevail."
Tarkanian consultant Jamie Fisfis said he thinks Tarkanian is leading Lowden.
"They don't jibe for me," he said of the Mason-Dixon results depicting a statistical tie in the primary. "Lowden has received a small announcement bump, but we have maintained our lead."
Fisfis said the campaign took an automated poll of more than 1,100 people while the Mason-Dixon pollsters were also making calls.
That poll didn't include as many candidates and showed Tarkanian leading Lowden by 8 percentage points, Fisfis said.
Lowden consultant Robert Uithoven says the Lowden campaign hasn't polled since August, but was pleased with the Mason-Dixon results.
Lowden didn't officially announce her candidacy until Oct. 1, but has been expected to run since the summer and was included in an August Mason-Dixon poll.
"Considering that Sue Lowden has only been in the race for a week these numbers are encouraging," Uithoven said. "Poll numbers are always great, but at the end they have got to show up by way of votes."
Uithoven acknowledged that with Reid poised to raise as much as $25 million to hold his seat, it is unlikely Lowden will retain 18 percent of Democrats who chose her over Reid.
With more than eight months to go before the Republican primary, there's still time for lesser-known candidates to gain some ground.
Investment banker John Chachas, an Ely native who has spent his adult life in New York, has contributed $1 million of his own money to a $1.4 million campaign.
"I'm paying my own freight here," said Chachas, who has yet to register to vote in Nevada. "I'm not using donor money to pay for my staff."
He's banking that his financial experience can help him show voters he has a better grasp of economic problems facing the nation than do leading Republicans.
"The discussion of how you fix the Nevada economy is how you fix the national economy," he said.
Wellington physician Robin Titus hopes she can leverage medical expertise to raise her profile among voters concerned about health care.
Titus, a Nevadan with family roots in Smith Valley dating to the 1880s, runs a general practice and still makes house calls for rural customers.
She believes in charging patients on a sliding scale based on their ability to pay. But she also said patients should pay something for health care so they realize its value, and should have more control over their treatment.
"A one-size-fits-everybody approach does not work in health care," Titus said.
She doesn't trust Reid to deliver health reform that conforms to values such as her own.
Contact reporter Benjamin Spillman at bspillman@reviewjournal.com or 702-477-3861.
Despite signs of improvement in the economy, the unemployment rate keeps climbing -- up to a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September -- providing Republicans political ammunition and putting Democrats on the defensive.
FOXNews.com
Thursday, October 08, 2009
It's the unemployment rate, stupid.
That could be the rallying cry for Republicans in elections next year, and possibly in 2012, as they seek to regain power in Congress and the White House.
Despite signs of improvement in the economy, the unemployment rate keeps climbing -- up to a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September -- potentially providing Republicans political ammunition and putting Democrats on the defensive.
Republicans have seized on the rising jobless figures as proof that President Obama's $787 billion stimulus package was a spectacular failure. But Democrats insist that the economy would be in far worse shape without the spending injection.
Either way, top economists told FOXNews.com that even with the job growth attributed to the stimulus package, it won't be enough to compensate for all the job losses since the recession began.
"The hole that has been blown in the labor market is enormous," said Heide Shierholz, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute.
In a new study by the institute, more than 53 percent of respondents listed unemployment and lack of jobs as the most important economic problem facing the country. The survey also found that 51 percent of respondents supported the stimulus package but an overwhelming majority, 81 percent, said the Obama administration still has not done enough to tackle unemployment.
"The thing is, even if the stimulus worked, it wouldn't have necessarily created a lot of jobs in the business cycle," said Kevin Hassett, the director of economic studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. "So I think the crowing on both sides in not the most defensible."
The economy has shed more than 7.1 million jobs since the recession began, in December 2007. All told, 15.1 million Americans are now out of work. But if the underemployed and people who have given up looking for new jobs are included, the unemployment rate is at 17 percent, the highest since such records were first kept, in 1994.
The stimulus package had aimed to create up to 3.5 million jobs.
Shierholz estimates the economy has lost more than 10 million jobs if the number of jobs needed to accommodate new workers -- college graduates and immigrants -- is included.
"The stimulus package, it is the thing that brought us back from the abyss," she said. "It is doing what it was expected to do. It's not enough. The level of growth to get recovery is enormous."
Shierholz said those who say the economy would be much worse without the stimulus package are "unequivocally correct."
But she added that, politically, "it's a tough one to talk about."
"Keep in mind just because we don't have this parallel universe to compare it to, we have a much heavier lift to get people to understand how worse things would have been and it makes it easier to discredit the stimulus package," she said.
Hassett pointed out the irony of Democrats being on the defensive about the economy after sweeping to power in Congress in 2006 and capturing the White House in 2008 based mainly on blaming Republicans for the economic woes. Now Democrats have adopted economic policies that were not well designed and will extend the economic misery for the next few years, he said.
Just like in 1994 when they retook Congress, Republicans are describing the economy as the worst since President Herbert Hoover presided over the start of the Great Depression, Hassett noted. The only difference? "This time it's true," Hassett said.
The Obama administration is consulting with Democratic congressional leaders on how to extend and possible expand the economic safety net. Among the ideas under consideration are extending jobless and health benefits and renewing a tax credit for first-time homebuyers.
David Autor, an economist at MIT, said those measures are good things. But when asked which political party will have the most effective campaign next year, he laughed and said, "Whatever is least true is most effective."
Palin slams Obama's spending in debut speech in Asia
Former US vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin said the US government was wasting taxpayers' money and could aggravate poverty, said delegates at her first speech outside North America on Wednesday.
Palin, the former governor of Alaska, gave hundreds of financial big-hitters at the CLSA Investors' Forum in Hong Kong a wide-ranging speech that covered Alaska, international terrorism, US economic policy and trade with China.
Some of those who attended praised her forthright views on government social and economic intervention and others walked out early in disgust.
"She was brilliant," said a European delegate, on condition of anonymity.
"She said America was spending a lot of money and it was a temporary solution. Normal people are having to pay more and more but things don't get better. The rich will leave the country and the poor will get poorer."
Two US delegates left early, with one saying "it was awful, we couldn't stand it any longer". He declined to be identified.
Palin, who shot to national and international prominence after Senator John McCain picked her as his running mate last year, stepped down as Alaska governor in July but has provided little insight into her future plans.
She is expected to write a book and has said she will travel the country campaigning for candidates who share her political ideology.
In the CLSA speech, which lasted about 75 minutes, Palin also tackled the recent US trade spat with China, a country she said the United States should have the best possible relationship with.
According to delegates, she said US President Barack Obama's administration worsened an already difficult situation when earlier this month he slapped duties on Chinese tire imports blamed for costing American jobs.
They said she praised the economic policies of former US President Ronald Reagan and criticised the current administration for intervening too much during the recent financial crisis.
Although she touched on the threat posed to the United States by terrorism and talked about links with traditional US allies in Asia such as Japan,Australia and South Korea, one Asian delegate complained she devoted too much time to her home state of Alaska.
"It was almost more of a speech promoting investment in Alaska," he said, declining to be named.
"As fund managers we want to hear about the United States as a whole, not just about Alaska. And she criticised Obama a lot but offered no solutions."
Another said he was disappointed that she took only pre-arranged questions.
There were no apparent gaffes though from Palin, who was mocked during last year's presidential campaign for her lack of experience in foreign affairs and for her verbal blunders.
Several delegates saw the speech as a sign of her ambitions to run as a presidential candidate in 2012 and a useful indication of the potential direction of US politics in the future.
"It was fairly right-wing populist stuff,' one US delegate said.
Palin blasted Obama's proposals on healthcare, reiterating a previous statement made to the press that the plan would include a bureaucratic "death panel" that would decide who gets assistance, he said.
Another from the United States said: "She frightens me because she strikes a chord with a certain segment of the population and I don't like it."
CLSA, an arm of French bank Credit Agricole, said it closed Palin's session to the media after she indicated that she would have to adjust her speech if reporters were present.
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